11 Comments

Really appreciate you guys publishing posts like this that are probably super basic for you. Thank you

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Beta of a coin flip = my networth after aping DCU coins

Goblin town down to zero

gonna need ketamine therapy for all the PAIN

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High correlation within crypto as an asset class is because market treats them all undifferentiated stores of value (inflation avoidance). Alpha happens when you correctly predict which coins win/survive

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Assume index of coin flip is 50/50 outcome. A single flip of a real coin has zero correlation with any past event. As number of flips approaches infinity, correlation with the “index” approaches 1.

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Coin flip should have a beta of 0 relative to S&P since there's no correlation. Heads to tails should be -1.

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Jan 28, 2022·edited Jan 28, 2022

Hypothetically - under what scenarios can you see a decoupling of BTC & the equity markets. I think it takes a doomsday scenario where all confidence is lost in USTT & BTC becomes the de facto flight to quality store of value…

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What's the beta on biotech and DCU coins rn?

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For the coin flip, outcome is unrelated and will show no correlation to the S&P therefore the beta is 0.

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Appreciate you guys and all that you do, quick question on FTM, NEAR, AVAX & DOT. Do you still see these coins having some good upside or would you just roll the money in them to ETH/BTC/LINK

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Interesting that BTC correlates more to equities than it does to gold. Given narrative of digital gold. HODLers = goldbugs?

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Beta of a coinflip, my guess is 0.5. It's not zero because 50% of the time you'd be flipping in the 'direction' as the index, heads for positive direction, negative would be the opposite of positive direction. So halfway between no correlation and 100% correlation.

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