Their prior post covers rolling memecoin profits back into ETH. ZYN has certainly dropped to about 250% of the initial buy recommendation on March 2nd (about $0.02) and below the thesis update on March 7th (about $0.08 and the rocket to 0.17). I personally added a small amount when it dropped to around $0.04, but holding on to the original thesis and the promise of 'Zyn to Earn'. If (when?) that is released it could have a major breakthrough to ath. So if you're considering adding more really a gamble on your part if you bullieve they will come through. The founder has clearly been working following an X Spaces and is pushing w/ influencer marketing and has received additional bullish takes from prominent figures on X
nope - did we say this somewhere? If you're referring to the $100K+ and $5K+ numbers that's just round numbers we picked to point out we feel it's far too early to start calling tops. Wouldn't read too much in to that, main point we're trying to make is that market hasn't topped and we are still bullievers (since lot of people have been panicking during this pullback).
Did you guys see the writing on the wall and derisk some before this drawdown? I had seen your posts on Twitter about unwinding some positions. Iguana you had mentioned selling on (7%) up days and buying on (7%) down days. Any more general rules you follow in terms of sizing/derisking? Probably a lot of us wondering with these crazy meme spikes. Thank you
Yes, I took my leverage off at $4k to be safe. Paid a lot of mainnet gas but it was worth it.
I bought the 10% down day and took some of the new position off today. Still very bullish. Now isn't the time to be derisking in my opinion.
My execution isn't great recently as getting used to taking on more risk / bigger position sizes. It's a hard balance, goal is more size than your comfortable with, not enough to cause serious stress or interfere with decision making.
On that point, if anyone was seriously stressed by a 25% drawdown they're carrying too much risk or don't have enough conviction in the opportunity. Amazingly, the consensus seems to be that an ETH ETF won't be approved. Well if that's consensus, what would the market do if
It's not a trade in the sense that we're not tying up capital being long one part holding an open short in the other for months (it moved 20% in a week so took that off due to funding etc.) But team rotated spot positions around 0.05. We'd be wrong to do that if ETH/BTC never trades above 0.065 the whole cycle. Otherwise there's a point where it clearly makes sense to be heavier ETH and then take profit into Bitcoin or fiat later.
ETH has been in lockstep with Bitcoin since October and it doesn't even have an ETF yet. An ETF and flows would obviously make ETH more attractive than it is now. People don't believe its getting approved.
I hope you are right. Just don't forget that Grayscale ETHE holds 3M ETH and collects a 2.5% fee. This might create an even higher selling pressure than GBTC once ETH ETFs are approved. Or maybe Grayscale will have learnt from GBTC and reduce the fee more significantly?
The BTC spot ETF launch should be a good case study. While history doesn't necessarily repeat itself it sure does rhyme. My thesis ETH demand > than GS drawdown.
“The SEC has no good reason to deny the ETH ETP applications. And we hope they won’t try to invent one by questioning the long established regulatory status of ETH, which the SEC has repeatedly endorsed.”
Also someone pointed out that even XRP isn't a security. SEC couldn't beat Ripple Labs. Beat Blackrock? Nah.
Shouldn't matter as SOL is a rigged game, you either had the capital / connections to get it at $64 this month or you stay out cause your counterparty is buying at a discount from the FTX estate and dumping on you. Don't play rigged games.
just some random 2cents, but sol is doing it mad this cycle. the chart looks like the BNB mad run from their launch, and the soleth chart looks like the ethbtc chart from '17.....
some 4x from here, to get a total m.c. of 400bill, whereabouts... the same that eth did at the top of 17....
so, 800-1k. at the top. year end or early 25 blow off?
Sighhh, *unzips....the online banking app and throws more money onto a CEX to buy ETH*
*makes 10% the next day*
Lmao i didnt even larp, i opened that shit up and sent the money. Got the transfer and filled the buy at 9:55pm
1 $ZYN = 1 ZYN. IYKYK. 🚀
Congrats to Pickle!
So long as there is plasma in my veins, I never have to sell.
Are you guys buying either the $ETH or $ZYN dip with net new capital? (Not alt profits)
Their prior post covers rolling memecoin profits back into ETH. ZYN has certainly dropped to about 250% of the initial buy recommendation on March 2nd (about $0.02) and below the thesis update on March 7th (about $0.08 and the rocket to 0.17). I personally added a small amount when it dropped to around $0.04, but holding on to the original thesis and the promise of 'Zyn to Earn'. If (when?) that is released it could have a major breakthrough to ath. So if you're considering adding more really a gamble on your part if you bullieve they will come through. The founder has clearly been working following an X Spaces and is pushing w/ influencer marketing and has received additional bullish takes from prominent figures on X
Good take!
I added on both, but I've plenty of recent profits to plow into memes. Most people should stick to majors and selling half at a double on altcoins.
Is there a way to see the amount of leverage in the crypto system?
you guys see eth/btc staying around .05 for the majority of the cycle? why would you hold eth over btc if this is the case
nope - did we say this somewhere? If you're referring to the $100K+ and $5K+ numbers that's just round numbers we picked to point out we feel it's far too early to start calling tops. Wouldn't read too much in to that, main point we're trying to make is that market hasn't topped and we are still bullievers (since lot of people have been panicking during this pullback).
got it, thank you for the clarification.
I've been saving some cash to ape into your AI recommendations. PUH-LEAAAAASE!
What do you assign the probability to ETH etf approval by may?
80%
down from your 90% rate from before?
Pickle is the best
Did you guys see the writing on the wall and derisk some before this drawdown? I had seen your posts on Twitter about unwinding some positions. Iguana you had mentioned selling on (7%) up days and buying on (7%) down days. Any more general rules you follow in terms of sizing/derisking? Probably a lot of us wondering with these crazy meme spikes. Thank you
i was knife catching on the way down and bought as recently as this afternoon
from a trading perspective i could've managed my risk a lot better this week and def learned some lessons, but still came out of it on top
IMO we are at a stage in the cycle where "bad timing" is still profitable
the key is to observe, monitor and correct those mistakes so that you are risk managed when the tide shifts
will be writing a post on managing portfolio going into the next leg of bull mkt soon
Yes, I took my leverage off at $4k to be safe. Paid a lot of mainnet gas but it was worth it.
I bought the 10% down day and took some of the new position off today. Still very bullish. Now isn't the time to be derisking in my opinion.
My execution isn't great recently as getting used to taking on more risk / bigger position sizes. It's a hard balance, goal is more size than your comfortable with, not enough to cause serious stress or interfere with decision making.
On that point, if anyone was seriously stressed by a 25% drawdown they're carrying too much risk or don't have enough conviction in the opportunity. Amazingly, the consensus seems to be that an ETH ETF won't be approved. Well if that's consensus, what would the market do if
a) denied;
b) approved
and therefore what's the EV?
At what ratio would you consider the eth/BTC trade wrong?
It's not a trade in the sense that we're not tying up capital being long one part holding an open short in the other for months (it moved 20% in a week so took that off due to funding etc.) But team rotated spot positions around 0.05. We'd be wrong to do that if ETH/BTC never trades above 0.065 the whole cycle. Otherwise there's a point where it clearly makes sense to be heavier ETH and then take profit into Bitcoin or fiat later.
Thoughts on why moving from eth to btc or just to balance portfolio at a later point?
I locked eth up into aave and sold short BTC. The opportunity cost is getting painful
That's not an awful trade as you avoid serious negative carry. If you need the capital for better opportunities, either lever it or get rid of it.
How low can you see the ratio going? Levering it could get risky
Still in ZYN?
Also does anywhere here know when STONE can be converted back to ETH?
yep we are still in ZYN
ZYN it to win it baby
The Zyn stays in
Supposed to be 26 march
What do you all think it’ll take for ETH to get love again?
ETH has been in lockstep with Bitcoin since October and it doesn't even have an ETF yet. An ETF and flows would obviously make ETH more attractive than it is now. People don't believe its getting approved.
I hope you are right. Just don't forget that Grayscale ETHE holds 3M ETH and collects a 2.5% fee. This might create an even higher selling pressure than GBTC once ETH ETFs are approved. Or maybe Grayscale will have learnt from GBTC and reduce the fee more significantly?
its not net selling pressure to ETH if the capital rotates into other ETH ETF products
The BTC spot ETF launch should be a good case study. While history doesn't necessarily repeat itself it sure does rhyme. My thesis ETH demand > than GS drawdown.
Have you guys been seeing more things reinforcing your stance that it'll get approved ...just like the Blackrock 100m liquidity fund today?
Yep, tons.
Coinbase Chief Legal Officer…
“The SEC has no good reason to deny the ETH ETP applications. And we hope they won’t try to invent one by questioning the long established regulatory status of ETH, which the SEC has repeatedly endorsed.”
Also someone pointed out that even XRP isn't a security. SEC couldn't beat Ripple Labs. Beat Blackrock? Nah.
Helpful post. Whats a target range for SOL you’d be looking for as a top?
Not thinking about tops yet.
Shouldn't matter as SOL is a rigged game, you either had the capital / connections to get it at $64 this month or you stay out cause your counterparty is buying at a discount from the FTX estate and dumping on you. Don't play rigged games.
just some random 2cents, but sol is doing it mad this cycle. the chart looks like the BNB mad run from their launch, and the soleth chart looks like the ethbtc chart from '17.....
some 4x from here, to get a total m.c. of 400bill, whereabouts... the same that eth did at the top of 17....
so, 800-1k. at the top. year end or early 25 blow off?
you heard it first here... :P
Any worthy competitors to metamask in the hot wallet space? Know you all gave a review/update in the past
Views posted here haven't changed, including on Rabby
https://defieducation.substack.com/p/should-you-leave-metamask
Not for Ethereum-land.
Been using Rabby - really easy to see all of your different holdings from one place
Views posted here haven't changed, including on Rabby
https://defieducation.substack.com/p/should-you-leave-metamask
Rabby, I just love using it.
Views posted here haven't changed, including on Rabby
https://defieducation.substack.com/p/should-you-leave-metamask
Good to know, thank you ser, I use a hardware wallet but will reassess this.
Just a quick note: BTC all-time high, adjusted for USD inflation, would be roughly $78,000. Anatoly Karlin mentioned this on X recently.