The real money comes from pension funds, and pension funds do not like to see volatility. So even if a fund manager might be a talented stock picker, he has to ramp that volatility way down to keep the clients happy, and that lowers returns. The days of Soros and co swinging for the fences to get a 30% CAGR are mostly over, except for a few small specialist funds, partly because markets are more efficient now, but also because of management incentives.
Every person doing anything important in the world with half a brain is in crypto right now. Even if it’s just a business owner making big bucks and stacking sats. Anything. They are all here.
Also saw somewhere on BTB that once these boomers die and their kids inherit their boring portfolios, it’s all getting liquidated and going straight into crypto. Makes a lot of sense to be honest.
Wow lots of Macro mindset but Micro action, thank you! There's tons of vids and articles online, and definitely not going to follow advice of most CT. Have any extra advice or guidelines for making it in the Trenches? Or just one of those where you gotta grind on DexScreener? Portfolio low/mid 5 figs.
Nothing beats experience and simply putting in the reps, but I'd suggest being in some group chats where you can bounce trade ideas off people at a minimum. Even just 4-5 people is better than going it solo. Dexscreener, Memescope, Telegram chats, and Twitter are the places you'll find coins. The relative importance of each can vary based on your personal style.
Would suggest being meticulous about monitoring why coins do well / fail, and monitoring your own trading/investing as well.
My total trading capital is in the low mid-six figures range. However, most of it is tradfi stuff, stocks, with a bit of options and futures to diversify. The actual crypto section is 5-figure hell. Even though I believe more in crypto, the additional risk (hack, robbery, losing keys, CEX blowup (though I don't keep much money there) makes me hesitant about a larger allocation. I basically just barbell that portion, LT holds on majors and super degen onchain trend chasing (90% on Solana). DeFai is the first thing here that I've actually liked, but I still think a bit more long term on these. Any tips on how to find the runner of the day early in the day?
I like the triangle investing approach from WSP way back. 1/3 split between RE, stocks and crypto. Crypto ofc always outpaces the other two so you just rebalance when the volatility becomes too much to handle or when you wanna buy a house or something. RE less attractive now than it used to be though, and I think everyone eventually comes to the realization that crypto is the best asset class. That said this approach protects you from blowing up entirely in the event you rly misplay crypto.
For runner of the day you could try memescope, analyze every new pair that launches and/or use a volume tracker to get pinged on every high volume token. It’s a real grind though if I’m being honest.
The other approach is just shoving large % of your folio into high conviction bets that come out less frequently. I’m moving to this strategy atm. Def riskier / higher blow up risk but it saves you from having to grind random coins all day for small gains, and you need to win less often.
Thanks Owl. I read Triangle Investing too late, a lot of it was outdated, but the ideas do make sense overall. I’m no goldbug, but it’s easier to deal with than real estate (which I have enough of), and unlike 1933, gov.t has no strong incentive to take it, but populism might force a lot of real estate taxes. Crypto has the best returns because the risks are v. high, I know a guy who lost his family savings after his btc got hacked, where he’d been shoveling their savings for years, when my holdings get to a point where a hack would devastate me I just sell it, that puts a hard cap on my profit potential though.
1) Thoughts on Tangem wallet? You mentioned you addressed in a prior Q&A but I scoured last few months and didn't see anything.
2) Thoughts on buying Hypercoin on dips? Anything below $20 I think you mentioned prior. What about the security of holding on their exchange as I don't see a way to self custody.
Can the people who keep asking about Tangem find the comments where we replied in detail about the offering on another Q&A from last quarter? I will see if I can find it. Substack format needs a better way of searching / keeping track of what is already answered.
I looked through Q and As back through July of last year twice haha, and I didn’t see anything. I saw a comment in November I think saying it would be addressed in a write up. I may have missed it though and agree on a search function, super annoying when tons of comments
Thanks for looking. I'm adamant it's there because I remember doing the research (but not the details, getting to that age...) but its possible I posted and substack ate the comment.
Looking back, I err on smaller sizes, which means wins aren't meaningful. Is "adjusting to sizing" about getting used to the pain of larger losses with larger positions?
That seven figure zone opens up all kinds of "institutional" access. Though technically not institutional, you can keep your portfolio in crypto while giving a part of it to trusted managers. No, this isn't easy, but like PE, VC, hedge funds, etc, there are legendary managers out there. This is especially true if you got lucky making it. Finding those managers will open up an entirely new world of opportunity for continued growth, learning, and diversification.
Eh, I'm pretty against giving money to professional money managers. Lots in crypto who are no better than the average onchain trader. The level of diligence and talent-spotting required to make this a profitable endeavor is extremely rare, not to mention the access required to get into an actually top fund. Just because someone works at an institution that manages a lot of money doesn't mean they're worth investing in.
This is exactly why I mention legendary managers. They are not easy to find, and a lot are not open for additional investment. How do you find one? Well, references are a good place to start, but it is a relationship game that comes down to long-term performance. When you are with a team through changing market tides that show they know far more than you could ever dream of, it is magic...and rare.
In the trad-fi world there are three I work with that have performed flawlessly through the COVID meltdown and switch from value defined by growth to value defined by actually making money. Though it is a little early to tell the battle tested ones in the crypto space some are bubbling to the top. Their scars (or successes) combined with their skill bases are impossible for me, as one person, to say I could do by myself. It is also NOT about just looking at the numbers. It is about how they are getting the performance. If it is a black box you need to trust in -- run, and tell others to run too.
If you want this to become your permanent day job, go for it. I don't. I am the CEO of my wealth, not the COO.
Hard disagree. If you made your money here on your own do not give it to others to manage.
I'd refer to the recent Usual[dot]Money farce and MEV Capital, Gauntlet and other 'risk managers' involvement and their allocation of $$'s to hardcoded lending markets for a 4yr 'bond(?)' token that was sold at par, propped up at par and going to be negatively revalued by the team without notice.
Lots of risk managers, funds and defi protocols and their users misled and subsequently rekt.
I first read the first zone as “1-100K” and thought “huh, a hundred bands is now a nonexistent portfolio?” lol
Hah, in tradfi institutional land you can't even cover your overhead if you manage less than $100 million
Too bad I’m missing out on those 20% annual gains! Oh no!
20% annually from a tradfi fund? You'd be lucky to get 10%, and that's before they take out the fees for underperforming SPY.
Lmao, that bad, huh?
The real money comes from pension funds, and pension funds do not like to see volatility. So even if a fund manager might be a talented stock picker, he has to ramp that volatility way down to keep the clients happy, and that lowers returns. The days of Soros and co swinging for the fences to get a 30% CAGR are mostly over, except for a few small specialist funds, partly because markets are more efficient now, but also because of management incentives.
Every person doing anything important in the world with half a brain is in crypto right now. Even if it’s just a business owner making big bucks and stacking sats. Anything. They are all here.
Also saw somewhere on BTB that once these boomers die and their kids inherit their boring portfolios, it’s all getting liquidated and going straight into crypto. Makes a lot of sense to be honest.
Wish I had seen this advice 3-4 yrs ago.
First cyclers should definitely take note.
Great article guys. Appreciate seeing logic around these parts. Thanks for everything.
Wow lots of Macro mindset but Micro action, thank you! There's tons of vids and articles online, and definitely not going to follow advice of most CT. Have any extra advice or guidelines for making it in the Trenches? Or just one of those where you gotta grind on DexScreener? Portfolio low/mid 5 figs.
Nothing beats experience and simply putting in the reps, but I'd suggest being in some group chats where you can bounce trade ideas off people at a minimum. Even just 4-5 people is better than going it solo. Dexscreener, Memescope, Telegram chats, and Twitter are the places you'll find coins. The relative importance of each can vary based on your personal style.
Would suggest being meticulous about monitoring why coins do well / fail, and monitoring your own trading/investing as well.
Yes brother thank you! 🤞❤️
+1
My total trading capital is in the low mid-six figures range. However, most of it is tradfi stuff, stocks, with a bit of options and futures to diversify. The actual crypto section is 5-figure hell. Even though I believe more in crypto, the additional risk (hack, robbery, losing keys, CEX blowup (though I don't keep much money there) makes me hesitant about a larger allocation. I basically just barbell that portion, LT holds on majors and super degen onchain trend chasing (90% on Solana). DeFai is the first thing here that I've actually liked, but I still think a bit more long term on these. Any tips on how to find the runner of the day early in the day?
I like the triangle investing approach from WSP way back. 1/3 split between RE, stocks and crypto. Crypto ofc always outpaces the other two so you just rebalance when the volatility becomes too much to handle or when you wanna buy a house or something. RE less attractive now than it used to be though, and I think everyone eventually comes to the realization that crypto is the best asset class. That said this approach protects you from blowing up entirely in the event you rly misplay crypto.
For runner of the day you could try memescope, analyze every new pair that launches and/or use a volume tracker to get pinged on every high volume token. It’s a real grind though if I’m being honest.
The other approach is just shoving large % of your folio into high conviction bets that come out less frequently. I’m moving to this strategy atm. Def riskier / higher blow up risk but it saves you from having to grind random coins all day for small gains, and you need to win less often.
Thanks Owl. I read Triangle Investing too late, a lot of it was outdated, but the ideas do make sense overall. I’m no goldbug, but it’s easier to deal with than real estate (which I have enough of), and unlike 1933, gov.t has no strong incentive to take it, but populism might force a lot of real estate taxes. Crypto has the best returns because the risks are v. high, I know a guy who lost his family savings after his btc got hacked, where he’d been shoveling their savings for years, when my holdings get to a point where a hack would devastate me I just sell it, that puts a hard cap on my profit potential though.
Not related to the article but two questions:
1) Thoughts on Tangem wallet? You mentioned you addressed in a prior Q&A but I scoured last few months and didn't see anything.
2) Thoughts on buying Hypercoin on dips? Anything below $20 I think you mentioned prior. What about the security of holding on their exchange as I don't see a way to self custody.
Thanks!
Can the people who keep asking about Tangem find the comments where we replied in detail about the offering on another Q&A from last quarter? I will see if I can find it. Substack format needs a better way of searching / keeping track of what is already answered.
I looked through Q and As back through July of last year twice haha, and I didn’t see anything. I saw a comment in November I think saying it would be addressed in a write up. I may have missed it though and agree on a search function, super annoying when tons of comments
Thanks for looking. I'm adamant it's there because I remember doing the research (but not the details, getting to that age...) but its possible I posted and substack ate the comment.
Will get to it for you.
never heard of Tangem
I'm a buyer of hype $18-$22
Is sizing also more art than science?
Looking back, I err on smaller sizes, which means wins aren't meaningful. Is "adjusting to sizing" about getting used to the pain of larger losses with larger positions?
Absolutely sizing is basically the biggest differentiator
New to crypto and this substack , small portfolio trying to grow it out.
Have you guys done any posts on how to identify coins/tokens in the “trenches” that could be good short term plays to build up portfolio?
Can do a longer write up on this but it's really just about narratives and attention in the trenches. And not drinking the koolaid
- What narratives are trending (AI, memes, etc.)
- What do the buyers of those coins want? (AI = good team, technical development, etc. Memes = emotions, virality, etc)
From there it's about getting in at a low valuation and being smart about profit taking. This part's far more are than science
Anything you guys are farming now outside of hype?
Nope but keeping an eye out, def interested
Where do you think are we at in the current market? Massive drop this week, is the bull run over?
I am 30% cash, no idea if I will redeploy this cash at all. But still long crypto as I continue to believe BTC cycles exist and we are in one.
That seven figure zone opens up all kinds of "institutional" access. Though technically not institutional, you can keep your portfolio in crypto while giving a part of it to trusted managers. No, this isn't easy, but like PE, VC, hedge funds, etc, there are legendary managers out there. This is especially true if you got lucky making it. Finding those managers will open up an entirely new world of opportunity for continued growth, learning, and diversification.
Eh, I'm pretty against giving money to professional money managers. Lots in crypto who are no better than the average onchain trader. The level of diligence and talent-spotting required to make this a profitable endeavor is extremely rare, not to mention the access required to get into an actually top fund. Just because someone works at an institution that manages a lot of money doesn't mean they're worth investing in.
This is exactly why I mention legendary managers. They are not easy to find, and a lot are not open for additional investment. How do you find one? Well, references are a good place to start, but it is a relationship game that comes down to long-term performance. When you are with a team through changing market tides that show they know far more than you could ever dream of, it is magic...and rare.
In the trad-fi world there are three I work with that have performed flawlessly through the COVID meltdown and switch from value defined by growth to value defined by actually making money. Though it is a little early to tell the battle tested ones in the crypto space some are bubbling to the top. Their scars (or successes) combined with their skill bases are impossible for me, as one person, to say I could do by myself. It is also NOT about just looking at the numbers. It is about how they are getting the performance. If it is a black box you need to trust in -- run, and tell others to run too.
If you want this to become your permanent day job, go for it. I don't. I am the CEO of my wealth, not the COO.
Hard disagree. If you made your money here on your own do not give it to others to manage.
I'd refer to the recent Usual[dot]Money farce and MEV Capital, Gauntlet and other 'risk managers' involvement and their allocation of $$'s to hardcoded lending markets for a 4yr 'bond(?)' token that was sold at par, propped up at par and going to be negatively revalued by the team without notice.
Lots of risk managers, funds and defi protocols and their users misled and subsequently rekt.
Would be interested in hearing more about these managers.
No you’re not. Or you shouldn’t be. It’s a scam. 1% for nothing. Educate yourself and manage your own money.