5 Comments

Didn't know where else to write this, so a bit off topic. I would like to find a way to quantify changes in momentum, either to the upside and downside. I saw a linked article on CT to: https://insights.deribit.com/market-research/momentum-bitcoin-and-reflexivity/

Here they use Hurst Exponent to assess price momentums, which could be pretty important in helping to determine when to get in, or more so, when to get out. I pulled 4yr, day to day, historical data on Eth price from Coingecko, and ran the analysis in R (~0.9, very reflexive, no surprise).

1) What are your thoughts no this tool?

2) I am having trouble accessing the hr-hr price data. If I only have day2day price data, the minimum time frame is ~20days. Thus, to do more intra-month analysis (which I think is critical since price/momentum moves very quickly), I need hr2hr price data. Can anyone help there?

Expand full comment

A similar concept I've deployed before is to consider portfolio risk based on the recent realized volatility of a product. This is helpful because your position size gets trimmed as the product becomes more volatile to keep risk constant, so when a coin you're in starts to go parabolic to the upside rebalancing to your target position has the side effect of taking profits into that momentum.

I've come across this concept in the public domain via Rob Carver's (used to run a book for AHL) Github https://github.com/robcarver17/systematictradingexamples

His thoughts and some data on volatility targeting in this blog post: https://qoppac.blogspot.com/2018/07/vol-targeting-and-trend-following.html

Expand full comment

I've pulled from the Binance API, it covers most coins for the timeframe and resolution you need.

If you don't want to code anything up, the Quantower platform connects to Binance for free and will let you do a history export in CSV / Excel format. QT is closed source and made in Ukraine, per usual I recommend you sandbox untrusted software. So recommend spinning up an AWS instance, install QT, pull the Excel files, email them to yourself and delete the instance.

Expand full comment

Ah so $PUNK is a fractionalized medium for punks? Would be great to know all of the ways to purchase fractionalized premium NFTs

Expand full comment

An option not mentioned in our article is https://fractional.art/ (made semi-famous by Etherock #72 / "Pebble")

Expand full comment